Black Swan

The term “Black Swan” originates from the ancient Western belief that all swans were white, a notion so entrenched that “black swan” became a metaphor for something impossible or non-existent. This changed in the 17th century when European explorers discovered black swans in Australia, turning the metaphor on its head.

Deeper Symbolism

1. Unpredictability and Rarity
   The Black Swan symbolises events that are:
   • Highly improbable (outside the realm of normal expectation),
   • High-impact (profound consequences),
   • Retroactively explainable (once they occur, people rationalize them as if they were predictable).
2. Epistemological Humility
   It reminds us of the limits of human knowledge, what we assume to be “impossible” may simply reflect our ignorance or limited experience.
3. Paradigm Shifts
   The discovery of black swans forced a revision of biological taxonomy and scientific assumptions, symbolising how rare events can overturn established beliefs.
4. Modern Use:
   In his 2007 book The Black Swan: The Impact of the Highly Improbable, Nassim Nicholas Taleb formalised the concept to describe rare, unpredictable, high-impact events in finance, history, and technology e.g. the 2008 financial crisis, the rise of the internet, the COVID-19 pandemic, the Donny-Two-Dolls administration or the AI revolution.
5. Philosophical & Literary Symbolism
   The Black Swan often represents:
   • The unexpected disruption of order,
   • The fragility of systems built on assumptions,
   • The beauty or terror of the unknown.

Summary

The Black Swan is not merely about rarity, it’s a symbol of the limits of prediction, the power of the unexpected, and the need for resilience in the face of uncertainty.